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Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019): High profit decline is expected to improve 19Q2 performance

Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019): High profit decline is expected to improve 19Q2 performance

Baosteel Co., Ltd. (600019): High profit decline is expected to improve 19Q2 performance

In 2018, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother was 215.

700 million, Q1-Q4 are 50.

2.49.

9,57.

4,58.

200 million yuan.

In 2018, the company’s commodity billet sales were 4,709.

8 for the first time, higher than the value added 2.

01%; total 都市夜网 operating income of 3052.

0.5 billion, an increase of 5 in five years.

43%; net profit attributable to mother 215.

6.5 billion, an increase of 12 in ten years.

49%; EPS is 0.

97 yuan; expected average return on net assets is 12.

71%, an increase of 0 a year.

47 points.

; 19Q1 end debt ratio 43.

75%.

The company intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0%.

50 yuan / share (including tax), total dividends 111.

3.4 billion with a dividend payout ratio of 51.

63%, according to the closing price of 7 on April 30.

17 yuan to calculate the index rate 6.

97%.

In 2018, gross profit per ton of material was 796 yuan / ton, and net profit per ton of material was 494 yuan / ton.

In 2018, the sales volume of cold-rolled carbon steel coils, hot-rolled carbon steel coils, steel pipes, long products, and other steels were replaced by 1852, 2054, 222, 179, and 403, respectively, with a maximum of 7.

5%, -3.

8%, 4.

0%, 3.

9%, 7.

8%, 2.

0%; gross profit per ton of 836, 740, 808, 790, 1245 yuan / ton, a continuous increase of 12, 53, 666, 138, 785 yuan / ton; gross ton gross profit of 796 yuan / ton, sometimes +127 yuan / ton; tonThe net profit of the material is 494 yuan / ton, and ten years +52 yuan / ton.

1Q1 returns to net profit of mother 27.

300 million, downgraded 45 quarterly.

7%, we expect 19Q2 results to improve sequentially.

In 19Q1, the sales volume of the company’s commodity blanks was 1,115.

1 for the first time, higher than the added value 2.

06%; realized total operating income of 654.7.8 billion, downgraded by 3 every year.

06%; net profit attributable to mother 27.

2.6 billion, downgraded 45 quarterly.

71%; EPS is 0.

12 yuan.

19Q1 ton material gross profit (including non-steel business profit) was 596 yuan / ton, which was a continuous decrease of 413 yuan / ton, down 293 yuan / ton from the previous month; net profit per ton material was 264 yuan / ton, sometimes down 242 yuan / ton, and a monthly decrease of 245 yuan / tonTon.
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, auto production and sales in March 2019 narrowed by more than a decline. The ex-factory price of Baosteel coil increased by about 300 yuan / ton in April. Ex-factory prices in May rose steadily. We expect 19Q2 results to improve sequentially.

Cost reductions of 38 in 2018.

60,000 yuan, a target of 2 billion yuan in 2019.

Cost reductions of 38 in 2018.

600 million US dollars, of which manufacturing costs, financial costs, management costs, sales costs, raw material procurement logistics costs fell by 32.

55, 5.

15, 2.

47, 0.

36, up 1.

98 ppm; 2019 target exceeded 2 billion.

In 2018, formal employees’ labor efficiency increased by 8.

3%, and the target for 2019 is more than 8%.

Zhanjiang and Wuhan bases saw significant profit growth in 2018. Zhanjiang No. 3 blast furnace started construction and plans to start production in 2021.

In 2018, the subsidiaries Meishan Iron and Steel, Zhanjiang Iron and Steel and Wuhan Iron and Steel had net profit of 26 respectively.

3, 42.

1, 18.

300 million, an increase of 13%, 82% and 210% each year.

The Zhanjiang No. 3 blast furnace project has been fully started at the end of March 2019. The company plans to start production in July 2021. After completion, it will add hot metal 402 circuit breakers, molten steel 360 nozzles, 450 hot rolled products and 166 cold rolled products.
Profit forecast and investment rating.

We expect the company’s 19/20/21 EPS to be zero.

65/0.

65/0.

67 yuan, according to the closing price of 7 on April 30.

17 yuan calculation PE is 11 respectively.

00x / 11.

01x / 10.

77x.

Refer to comparable companies and give them 0 for 2019.

9-1.

0 times PB, reasonable value range 7.

43-8.

26 yuan, corresponding to PE 11 in 2019.

40-12.

67 times, maintain “previous market” rating.risk warning.

Production and sales of automotive appliances were sluggish; competition for automotive panels intensified; Bao-Wu collaboration failed to meet expectations.