"European debt crisis 2.0 "incoming?

4. Alina Cho in the "deflation monster" (deflationorge) long-term destruction of the fragile euro zone may have been not withstand another blow。However, "the Greek retreat Europe" (Grexit) threat happens again squeeze into the field of vision。Does "the European debt crisis 2.0 "has begun to ferment?  Greek political sparked fears of deflation risk of suffering from the eurozone, "the pressure in the body of the other camels straw" appeared。On Tuesday, the Greek stock market extended losses to 13%, the Athens Stock Exchange index hit the biggest decline in 1987, ten-year Greek bond yields soared more than 8.17%。Dragged down European stock markets generally fell, pan-os the Trafigura 600 index fell 2.33%。Then the influx of hedge fund assets, the 10-year German bond yields hit a record low, reaching 0.69%。The key question is, what is this camel dead or alive?  Fuse is the Greek political movements。Greek Prime Minister Samaras on Tuesday unexpectedly announced, scheduled for next year will be February 15 presidential elections brought forward to December 17。Once the presidential candidate proposed by Samaras was not elected, it will likely lead to Syriza (radical) ruling Greece。On the current situation, the government has not enough votes。Instead, the poll showed the highest left-wing party Syriza in public support rate。  If Syriza has been elected as the ruling party, Greece's policy direction or a major shift occurs, "Greek exit from the euro" it will also become possible again。The party supports forgo having negotiated agreements with international aid agencies。This will undoubtedly Greek bond prices fell and pushed yields soared, triggering a new round of European debt crisis。  It is worth noting that the radical party "troika" (the European Union, the European Central Bank [microblogging] and the IMF [microblogging]) bailout loans provided extremely repulsive (accompanied by harsh austerity conditions), advocate the government to regain sovereignty。However, Greece is currently interest in the private market borrowing more than 8%, seven times more than bailout loan interest rates, increase spending difficult, so this idea is inevitable that the market panic。  Since 2010, Greece will live relying on international bailout loans to live the days of the loan amount up to 240 billion euros。Greece is a huge price to pay, the Greek people have to suffer austerity of "destruction" – the Greek Government has repeatedly raise taxes, cut pensions and salaries。  Greece is currently an aid scheme should expire at the end of 2014, Greece with the "troika" to mid-2015 Greek budget has been negotiating for several weeks, but the two sides to negotiate spending cuts in the size and further economic reform in the mid-2015's the impasse。  Time back to originating the occasion of the first round of the European debt crisis。October 20, 2009, the Greek government announced that current deficit to GDP ratio will exceed 12%, well above the 3% ceiling set by the EU。Then, the world's three major rating agencies have downgraded Greece's sovereign credit rating, the European sovereign debt crisis erupted in Greece took the lead and began to spread to the "PIIGS" (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain)。For since that has stepped out of the eurozone crisis still fragile in terms of "Yesterday Once More" risks becoming more paradoxical。  If the "Greek exit from the euro" come true Although Greece then struggled to stay in the euro area, but now it may be time to think about those things unthinkable。  When the "Greek exit from the euro," when most of the high risk, IMF staff said in a report published in March 2012 in that if Greece leave the euro zone, Greece, currency devaluation, monetary financing of deficit spending would push up inflation, wages and other upward pressure on production costs increased rapidly weaken Greece's overall competitive advantage。Meanwhile, Greece leave the euro zone may make other European countries, the world economic cost。If Greece really out of the euro, the tragedy is likely to continue endlessly。  If Greece out of the euro decision, the government will work with other euro-zone countries to reach a consensus on the release date of its exit from the euro and the new currency。At the same time, Greece is likely to shut down the bank and the euro deposits converted into drachma (drachma)。  Since then, the salaries of all government employees, contract payments and pensions will be a new currency, bank deposits will be revalued。The government will also set the initial exchange rate of the new currency, the euro (such as 1:01), after which the government will let the market determine the currency exchange rate of the new currency, which will lead to new or currency devaluation。When the "Greek exit from the euro," the occasion of the high risk, experts predict a new devaluation of at least 50%, and some economists say the rate may depreciate even up to 80%。  The consequences could be disastrous devaluation caused。Bore the brunt of the flight of deposits, depositors will begin to withdraw their deposits in advance。During the debt crisis, the Greek banking sector deposits have been reduced by about one-third。Greek domestic banks will face a run and therefore risk capital to flee。  However, according to the previous poll, 78.1% of the Greek people do not want to leave the euro。"Retreat Europe" mean sacrificing: Qualcomm [microblogging] the level of inflation, the amount of funding shortages, declining living standards, social tensions and unrest even the international isolation of the regime in Greece。These are all important factors into account have the。  After Way back when, Argentina and Russia abandoned the fixed exchange rate system, then devalue its currency by about 60%?70%。However, Greece in addition to a variety of cheese products, these two countries do not have the strength of resources – energy and commodities。Therefore, to ask whether Greece can then living in the "retreat Europe" after the home of the death?The answer is "very difficult"。