Trump incite a trade war with the United States to be the world's pinch frame?

Recently, some of the world's top economists called on US President Trump rescind the order, do not trigger a trade war, and warned it will have a disastrous impact on US and world economy。 Not long ago, US President Trump announced for steel and aluminum were imposed from abroad 25% and 10% import duty, all sectors of the judgment of global economic uncertainty once again been confirmed。
Japan, Australia, Canada and other parties have expressed an unacceptable。 The EU may soon list retaliation list, the United States imported $ 3.5 billion to European products, including the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on cars with a horizontal, jeans, whiskey, etc.。 In the United States, the scholars also more opposed to trade protection。 They have warned the US government not to forget the lessons of history of trade protection。 For example, in the 1960s the US trade protection and trade protection measures taken by George W. Bush, not only did not bring strong growth in the US economy, but also the loss of jobs。
So, open trade war the United States to play exactly what the "wishful thinking"?A careful analysis of them, of which there are multiple levels of point。
First, the traditional multilateral trading system。
The early years of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and the World Trade Organization, are rich man's club, the developed countries determine the international trade order。 With economic globalization, developing countries gradually move toward industrialization, the proportion of their trade in tangible products, as well as trade in manufactured goods increased year by year。
WTO trade liberalization advocated, to a certain extent reflects the increasing protection of the trade interests of developing countries, but also makes the voice of developing countries in international trade in order to maintain and develop aspects of growing。 As proposed by developed countries high-tech products, intellectual property protection, due to difficult to reach a multilateral agreement can not be effectively protected。 Therefore, from the beginning of the Obama administration, the United States tried to reshape international economic and trade order by regional economic integration, "Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement" and so on, and now Trump government at a trade war, the purpose is to promote international economic order towards trade the direction of development is conducive to the interests of the United States。
Secondly, European economies。
20 since the 1950s, despite US support for European integration, but the Europeans want to build a Europe of Europeans。
Since then, the Europeans not only in terms of economic integration, the establishment of a customs union, the unified European market, Economic and Monetary Union, but also towards the development of economic and political integration, the gradual strengthening of the euro is a strong opponent of the dollar system。
After a decade-long financial crisis and economic recession, Europe has withstood the crisis could split, and finally towards recovery in the overall economy。 At this time, Trump launched a trade war with the intention that the US economic recovery make it a bit longer, but it is undoubtedly a pot of cold water poured on Europe, will inevitably lead to a strong rebound in Europe。 Third, for the economy increasingly powerful China。 40 years of reform and opening up, China grabbed two rare historical opportunity: First, relatively free trade initiative into the world economy, the second is the peak of China's accession to WTO of economic globalization。
China formed its own characteristics of the socialist market economy, and continue to maintain high-speed growth。 Today, the Chinese economy has been the rapid growth phase of flight to quality development stage, no, it is impossible to expect the emergence of the West "hard landing"。
Therefore, the United States launched a trade war against China policy implication is this: China's export restrictions, thereby limiting China's economic development。
In addition, other small economies, the United States also took the opportunity to bargain。 However, thy-neighbor trade war, doomed no winner。
For evenly matched of the world's trading nations or trading blocs, the trade protection would lead to retaliation, resulting in a lose-lose even more lost harms。 Alas, the US government thinks "it is easy to win."。
The hope is that they hold: the United States launched trade protection if it is to resort to WTO dispute settlement mechanism, then there is some need to take the program "Delay", other countries fear that their trade interests and therefore damaged, will be forced to do a concession。 For now, the time difference is likely to be the American bargaining chips, the trade war could eventually ending negotiations after issuing a positive signal to each other in。 However, the parties still can not take the matter lightly。
Today's world, development is the trend, globalization is the fundamental way。
Only by adhering to mutual benefit, in order to bring prosperity to the world, it is also a long-term policy for the country and development of。
(Editor: Introduction Jin, Ning cattle。